← NFL board
RJ Harvey
DEN @ ARI · Sun 4:05 PM ETRush + Rec Yards · 44.5 at PrizePicks · median 43.5 ·
47Signal · over 44.570% · 7 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
7 / 10Cleared the number in 7 of 10 games
How the formula reads this game
- carries: 4.2 a game recently
- targets: 5.2 a game recently
- vs ARI · ×1.04 yds per carry
- vs ARI · ×1.02 yds per target
Expected rush + rec yards: 50.1 yds against 44.5 · over 47%, under 53%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 5 games, 5 this season.
Last 10 games against 44.5 · Dec 7, 2025 – Oct 15, 2026
Worst miss -37| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-07 | LV | 100 over | +55.5 |
| 2025-12-14 | GB | 65 over | +20.5 |
| 2025-12-21 | JAX | 121 over | +76.5 |
| 2025-12-25 | KC | 76 over | +31.5 |
| 2026-01-04 | LAC | 33 under | −11.5 |
| 2026-09-14 | KC | 41 under | −3.5 |
| 2026-09-27 | LA | 47 over | +2.5 |
| 2026-10-04 | SF | 93 over | +48.5 |
| 2026-10-11 | LAC | 7 under | −37.5 |
| 2026-10-15 | SEA | 56 over | +11.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the over |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 7 / 10 | 70% over | +19 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Away (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 70% survives the other windows → One of the four windows disagrees by 20 points or more. Last 5, last 20, this season and the venue split come with DPB Pro.
Try every Pro feature free for 7 days, no card
Book Range
5 books · 2 yds spreadEasiest number for the over: 42.5
- FanDuel 42.5 -111 (easiest number)
- Fliff 43.5 -115
- Hard Rock Bet 43.5 -115
- DraftKings 44.5 -115
- PrizePicks 44.5
Line movement
- FanDuelMoved from 45.5 to 42.5
- FliffMoved from 45.5 to 43.5
- Hard Rock BetMoved from 45.5 to 43.5
- DraftKingsMoved from 46.5 to 44.5
- PrizePicksMoved from 46.5 to 44.5
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 44.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-15 | vs SEA | 56 | over |
| 2026-10-11 | @ LAC | 7 | under |
| 2026-10-04 | @ SF | 93 | over |
| 2026-09-27 | vs LA | 47 | over |
| 2026-09-14 | @ KC | 41 | under |
| 2026-01-04 | vs LAC | 33 | under |
| 2025-12-25 | @ KC | 76 | over |
| 2025-12-21 | vs JAX | 121 | over |
| 2025-12-14 | vs GB | 65 | over |
| 2025-12-07 | @ LV | 100 | over |
| 2025-11-30 | @ WAS | 62 | over |
| 2025-11-16 | vs KC | 50 | over |
| 2025-11-06 | vs LV | 18 | under |
| 2025-11-02 | @ HOU | 56 | over |
| 2025-10-26 | vs DAL | 51 | over |
| 2025-10-19 | vs NYG | 2 | under |
| 2025-10-12 | @ NYJ | 25 | under |
| 2025-10-05 | @ PHI | 30 | under |
| 2025-09-29 | vs CIN | 98 | over |
| 2025-09-21 | @ LAC | 16 | under |
| 2025-09-14 | @ IND | 24 | under |
| 2025-09-07 | vs TEN | 69 | over |