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Sam Darnold
SEA vs KC · Sun 8:20 PM ETCompletions · 19.5 at Fliff ·
44Signal · over 19.560% · 6 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
6 / 10Cleared the number in 6 of 10 games
How the formula reads this game
- pass attempts: 29.8 a game recently
Expected completions: 18.0 against 19.5 · over 44%, under 56%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 5 games, 5 this season.
Last 10 games against 19.5 · Dec 7, 2025 – Oct 15, 2026
Worst miss -18.5| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-07 | ATL | 20 over | +0.5 |
| 2025-12-14 | IND | 22 over | +2.5 |
| 2025-12-18 | LA | 22 over | +2.5 |
| 2025-12-28 | CAR | 18 under | −1.5 |
| 2026-01-03 | SF | 20 over | +0.5 |
| 2026-09-09 | NE | 1 under | −18.5 |
| 2026-09-27 | WAS | 31 over | +11.5 |
| 2026-10-04 | LAC | 13 under | −6.5 |
| 2026-10-11 | SF | 18 under | −1.5 |
| 2026-10-15 | DEN | 27 over | +7.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the over |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 6 / 10 | 60% over | -0.3 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Home (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 60% survives the other windows → One of the four windows disagrees by 20 points or more. Last 5, last 20, this season and the venue split come with DPB Pro.
Try every Pro feature free for 7 days, no card
Book Range
9 books · 0.5 spreadEasiest number for the over: 19.5 · best price MGM -120
- BetMGM 19.5 -120 (easiest number) (best price at this number)
- betPARX 19.5 -122 (easiest number)
- DraftKings 19.5 -122 (easiest number)
- BetRivers 19.5 -124 (easiest number)
- Hard Rock Bet 19.5 -125 (easiest number)
- Bally Bet 19.5 -129 (easiest number)
- Fliff 19.5 -130 (easiest number)
- Underdog 19.5 (easiest number)
- PrizePicks 20
Line movement
No book has moved its number since first posting it.
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 19.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-15 | @ DEN | 27 | over |
| 2026-10-11 | vs SF | 18 | under |
| 2026-10-04 | vs LAC | 13 | under |
| 2026-09-27 | @ WAS | 31 | over |
| 2026-09-09 | vs NE | 1 | under |
| 2026-01-03 | @ SF | 20 | over |
| 2025-12-28 | @ CAR | 18 | under |
| 2025-12-18 | vs LA | 22 | over |
| 2025-12-14 | vs IND | 22 | over |
| 2025-12-07 | @ ATL | 20 | over |
| 2025-11-30 | vs MIN | 14 | under |
| 2025-11-23 | @ TEN | 16 | under |
| 2025-11-16 | @ LA | 29 | over |
| 2025-11-09 | vs ARI | 10 | under |
| 2025-11-02 | @ WAS | 21 | over |
| 2025-10-20 | vs HOU | 17 | under |
| 2025-10-12 | @ JAX | 16 | under |
| 2025-10-05 | vs TB | 28 | over |
| 2025-09-25 | @ ARI | 18 | under |
| 2025-09-21 | vs NO | 14 | under |
| 2025-09-14 | @ PIT | 22 | over |
| 2025-09-07 | vs SF | 16 | under |