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Sam Darnold
SEA vs KC · Sun 8:20 PM ETCompletions · 20 at PrizePicks · median 19.5 ·
57Signal · over 2050% · 4 / 8 · last 10 · the formula's chance
4 / 8Cleared the number in 4 of 8 games, 2 pushes
How the formula reads this game
- pass attempts: 29.8 a game recently
Expected completions: 18.0 against 20 · over 43%, under 57% (if it doesn't land exactly on 20)
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 5 games, 5 this season.
Last 10 games against 20 · Dec 7, 2025 – Oct 15, 2026
Worst miss -19| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-07 | ATL | 20 push | +0.0 |
| 2025-12-14 | IND | 22 over | +2.0 |
| 2025-12-18 | LA | 22 over | +2.0 |
| 2025-12-28 | CAR | 18 under | −2.0 |
| 2026-01-03 | SF | 20 push | +0.0 |
| 2026-09-09 | NE | 1 under | −19.0 |
| 2026-09-27 | WAS | 31 over | +11.0 |
| 2026-10-04 | LAC | 13 under | −7.0 |
| 2026-10-11 | SF | 18 under | −2.0 |
| 2026-10-15 | DEN | 27 over | +7.0 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 4 / 8 | 50% | -1 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Home (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 50% survives the other windows → One of the four windows disagrees by 20 points or more. Last 5, last 20, this season and the venue split come with DPB Pro.
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Book Range
9 books · 0.5 spread
- BetMGM 19.5
- betPARX 19.5
- DraftKings 19.5
- BetRivers 19.5
- Hard Rock Bet 19.5
- Bally Bet 19.5
- Fliff 19.5
- Underdog 19.5
- PrizePicks 20
Line movement
No book has moved its number since first posting it.
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 20 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-15 | @ DEN | 27 | over |
| 2026-10-11 | vs SF | 18 | under |
| 2026-10-04 | vs LAC | 13 | under |
| 2026-09-27 | @ WAS | 31 | over |
| 2026-09-09 | vs NE | 1 | under |
| 2026-01-03 | @ SF | 20 | push |
| 2025-12-28 | @ CAR | 18 | under |
| 2025-12-18 | vs LA | 22 | over |
| 2025-12-14 | vs IND | 22 | over |
| 2025-12-07 | @ ATL | 20 | push |
| 2025-11-30 | vs MIN | 14 | under |
| 2025-11-23 | @ TEN | 16 | under |
| 2025-11-16 | @ LA | 29 | over |
| 2025-11-09 | vs ARI | 10 | under |
| 2025-11-02 | @ WAS | 21 | over |
| 2025-10-20 | vs HOU | 17 | under |
| 2025-10-12 | @ JAX | 16 | under |
| 2025-10-05 | vs TB | 28 | over |
| 2025-09-25 | @ ARI | 18 | under |
| 2025-09-21 | vs NO | 14 | under |
| 2025-09-14 | @ PIT | 22 | over |
| 2025-09-07 | vs SF | 16 | under |