← NFL board3 straight over
Sam Roush
CHI @ SEA · Mon 8:20 PM ETReceptions · 0.5 at Fliff ·
51Signal · over 0.5100% · 3 / 3 · last 10 · the formula's chance
3 / 3Cleared the number in 3 of 3 games, 7 without a result
How the formula reads this game
- targets: 1.7 a game recently → 2.0 this game
- TE2 on the depth chart (usually TE3) · ×1.22 targets
Expected receptions: 1.2 against 0.5 · over 51%, under 49%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 3 games, 3 this season.
Last 10 games against 0.5 · Sep 20, 2026 – Oct 4, 2026
Tightest clearance +0.5| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| — | — | no result | — |
| — | — | no result | — |
| — | — | no result | — |
| — | — | no result | — |
| — | — | no result | — |
| — | — | no result | — |
| — | — | no result | — |
| 2026-09-20 | MIN | 1 over | +0.5 |
| 2026-09-28 | PHI | 1 over | +0.5 |
| 2026-10-04 | NYJ | 1 over | +0.5 |
The ten-game rate rests on an average clearance under one unit of the stat: a thin habit rather than a wide one.
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the over |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 3 / 3 | 100% over | +0.5 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Away (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 100% survives the other windows → The four windows all agree with it within 20 points; DPB Pro shows each one.
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Book Range
0.54 books, no line disagreementFD · DK · FL · HR· best price at 0.5: FD -205
Line movement
No book has moved its number since first posting it.
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 0.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-04 | vs NYJ | 1 | over |
| 2026-09-28 | vs PHI | 1 | over |
| 2026-09-20 | vs MIN | 1 | over |