← NFL board
Tyler Higbee
LA @ LV · Sun 4:25 PM ETReceptions · 4.5 at Fliff ·
53Signal · under 4.560% · 6 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
4 / 10Cleared the number in 4 of 10 games
How the formula reads this game
- targets: 5.8 a game recently
Expected receptions: 4.8 against 4.5 · over 47%, under 53%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 5 games, 5 this season.
Last 10 games against 4.5 · Oct 19, 2025 – Oct 18, 2026
Worst miss -3.5 on the under| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-19 | JAX | 3 under | −1.5 |
| 2025-11-02 | NO | 3 under | −1.5 |
| 2025-11-09 | SF | 3 under | −1.5 |
| 2025-11-16 | SEA | 1 under | −3.5 |
| 2026-01-04 | ARI | 5 over | +0.5 |
| 2026-09-10 | SF | 2 under | −2.5 |
| 2026-09-27 | DEN | 8 over | +3.5 |
| 2026-10-04 | PHI | 5 over | +0.5 |
| 2026-10-12 | BUF | 5 over | +0.5 |
| 2026-10-18 | ARI | 4 under | −0.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 6 / 10 | 60% under | +0.6 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Away (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 60% survives the other windows → The four windows all agree with it within 20 points; DPB Pro shows each one.
Try every Pro feature free for 7 days, no card
Book Range
9 books · 1 spreadEasiest number for the under: 4.5
- betPARX 3.5
- BetRivers 3.5
- Bally Bet 3.5
- PrizePicks 4
- DraftKings 4.5 (easiest number)
- ESPN Bet 4.5 (easiest number)
- Hard Rock Bet 4.5 (easiest number)
- FanDuel 4.5 (easiest number)
- Fliff 4.5 (easiest number)
Line movement
- DraftKingsMoved from 3.5 to 4.5
- FanDuelMoved from 3.5 to 4.5
- FliffMoved from 3.5 to 4.5
- Hard Rock BetMoved from 3.5 to 4.5
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 4.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-18 | vs ARI | 4 | under |
| 2026-10-12 | vs BUF | 5 | over |
| 2026-10-04 | @ PHI | 5 | over |
| 2026-09-27 | @ DEN | 8 | over |
| 2026-09-10 | vs SF | 2 | under |
| 2026-01-04 | vs ARI | 5 | over |
| 2025-11-16 | vs SEA | 1 | under |
| 2025-11-09 | @ SF | 3 | under |
| 2025-11-02 | vs NO | 3 | under |
| 2025-10-19 | @ JAX | 3 | under |
| 2025-10-12 | @ BAL | 4 | under |
| 2025-09-28 | vs IND | 2 | under |
| 2025-09-21 | @ PHI | 0 | under |
| 2025-09-14 | @ TEN | 4 | under |