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Tyler Higbee
LA @ LV · Sun 4:25 PM ETReceptions · 4 at PrizePicks · median 4.5 ·
50Signal · under 456% · 5 / 9 · last 10 · the formula's chance
4 / 9Cleared the number in 4 of 9 games, 1 push
How the formula reads this game
- targets: 5.8 a game recently
Expected receptions: 4.8 against 4 · over 50%, under 50% (if it doesn't land exactly on 4)
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 5 games, 5 this season.
Last 10 games against 4 · Oct 19, 2025 – Oct 18, 2026
Worst miss -4 on the under| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-19 | JAX | 3 under | −1.0 |
| 2025-11-02 | NO | 3 under | −1.0 |
| 2025-11-09 | SF | 3 under | −1.0 |
| 2025-11-16 | SEA | 1 under | −3.0 |
| 2026-01-04 | ARI | 5 over | +1.0 |
| 2026-09-10 | SF | 2 under | −2.0 |
| 2026-09-27 | DEN | 8 over | +4.0 |
| 2026-10-04 | PHI | 5 over | +1.0 |
| 2026-10-12 | BUF | 5 over | +1.0 |
| 2026-10-18 | ARI | 4 push | +0.0 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 5 / 9 | 56% under | +0.1 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Away (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 56% survives the other windows → One of the four windows disagrees by 20 points or more. Last 5, last 20, this season and the venue split come with DPB Pro.
Try every Pro feature free for 7 days, no card
Book Range
9 books · 1 spreadEasiest number for the under: 4.5
- betPARX 3.5
- BetRivers 3.5
- Bally Bet 3.5
- PrizePicks 4
- DraftKings 4.5 (easiest number)
- ESPN Bet 4.5 (easiest number)
- Hard Rock Bet 4.5 (easiest number)
- FanDuel 4.5 (easiest number)
- Fliff 4.5 (easiest number)
Line movement
- DraftKingsMoved from 3.5 to 4.5
- FanDuelMoved from 3.5 to 4.5
- FliffMoved from 3.5 to 4.5
- Hard Rock BetMoved from 3.5 to 4.5
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 4 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-18 | vs ARI | 4 | push |
| 2026-10-12 | vs BUF | 5 | over |
| 2026-10-04 | @ PHI | 5 | over |
| 2026-09-27 | @ DEN | 8 | over |
| 2026-09-10 | vs SF | 2 | under |
| 2026-01-04 | vs ARI | 5 | over |
| 2025-11-16 | vs SEA | 1 | under |
| 2025-11-09 | @ SF | 3 | under |
| 2025-11-02 | vs NO | 3 | under |
| 2025-10-19 | @ JAX | 3 | under |
| 2025-10-12 | @ BAL | 4 | push |
| 2025-09-28 | vs IND | 2 | under |
| 2025-09-21 | @ PHI | 0 | under |
| 2025-09-14 | @ TEN | 4 | push |