← NFL board3 straight over
Aaron Rodgers
PIT @ NO · Sun 9:30 AM ETCompletions · 21.5 at Bally Bet ·
50Signal · over 21.580% · 8 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
8 / 10Cleared the number in 8 of 10 games
How the formula reads this game
- pass attempts: 38.8 a game recently
Expected completions: 23.8 against 21.5 · over 50%, under 50%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 6 games, 6 this season.
Last 10 games against 21.5 · Dec 15, 2025 – Oct 18, 2026
Worst miss -2.5| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-15 | MIA | 23 over | +1.5 |
| 2025-12-21 | DET | 27 over | +5.5 |
| 2025-12-28 | CLE | 21 under | −0.5 |
| 2026-01-04 | BAL | 31 over | +9.5 |
| 2026-09-13 | ATL | 24 over | +2.5 |
| 2026-09-20 | NE | 23 over | +1.5 |
| 2026-09-27 | CIN | 19 under | −2.5 |
| 2026-10-01 | CLE | 22 over | +0.5 |
| 2026-10-11 | IND | 22 over | +0.5 |
| 2026-10-18 | TB | 33 over | +11.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the over |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 8 / 10 | 80% over | +3 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Away (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 80% survives the other windows → One of the four windows disagrees by 20 points or more. Last 5, last 20, this season and the venue split come with DPB Pro.
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Book Range
8 books · 1 spreadEasiest number for the over: 21.5 · best price PX2 +102
- betPARX 21.5 +102 (easiest number) (best price at this number)
- BetRivers 21.5 +100 (easiest number)
- Bally Bet 21.5 -104 (easiest number)
- Hard Rock Bet 21.5 -130 (easiest number)
- PrizePicks 21.5 (easiest number)
- Fliff 22.5 -105
- DraftKings 22.5 -107
- Underdog 22.5
Line movement
- DraftKingsMoved from 21.5 to 22.5
- FliffMoved from 21.5 to 22.5
- UnderdogMoved from 21.5 to 22.5
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 21.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-18 | @ TB | 33 | over |
| 2026-10-11 | vs IND | 22 | over |
| 2026-10-01 | @ CLE | 22 | over |
| 2026-09-27 | vs CIN | 19 | under |
| 2026-09-20 | @ NE | 23 | over |
| 2026-09-13 | vs ATL | 24 | over |
| 2026-01-04 | vs BAL | 31 | over |
| 2025-12-28 | @ CLE | 21 | under |
| 2025-12-21 | @ DET | 27 | over |
| 2025-12-15 | vs MIA | 23 | over |
| 2025-12-07 | @ BAL | 23 | over |
| 2025-11-30 | vs BUF | 10 | under |
| 2025-11-16 | vs CIN | 9 | under |
| 2025-11-09 | @ LAC | 16 | under |
| 2025-11-02 | vs IND | 25 | over |
| 2025-10-26 | vs GB | 24 | over |
| 2025-10-16 | @ CIN | 23 | over |
| 2025-10-12 | vs CLE | 21 | under |
| 2025-09-28 | vs MIN | 18 | under |
| 2025-09-21 | @ NE | 16 | under |
| 2025-09-14 | vs SEA | 18 | under |
| 2025-09-07 | @ NYJ | 22 | over |