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AJ Barner
SEA vs KC · Sun 8:20 PM ETReceptions · 3.5 at Fanatics · median 2.5 ·
59Signal · under 3.580% · 8 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
2 / 10Cleared the number in 2 of 10 games
How the formula reads this game
- targets: 4.0 a game recently
Expected receptions: 2.5 against 3.5 · over 41%, under 59%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 6 games, 6 this season.
Last 10 games against 3.5 · Dec 14, 2025 – Oct 15, 2026
Worst miss -1.5 on the under| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-14 | IND | 3 under | −0.5 |
| 2025-12-18 | LA | 4 over | +0.5 |
| 2025-12-28 | CAR | 3 under | −0.5 |
| 2026-01-03 | SF | 2 under | −1.5 |
| 2026-09-09 | NE | 2 under | −1.5 |
| 2026-09-20 | ARI | 1 under | −2.5 |
| 2026-09-27 | WAS | 5 over | +1.5 |
| 2026-10-04 | LAC | 1 under | −2.5 |
| 2026-10-11 | SF | 3 under | −0.5 |
| 2026-10-15 | DEN | 3 under | −0.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 8 / 10 | 80% under | +0.8 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Home (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 80% survives the other windows → The four windows all agree with it within 20 points; DPB Pro shows each one.
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Book Range
10 books · 1 spreadEasiest number for the under: 3.5
- DraftKings 2.5
- ESPN Bet 2.5
- betPARX 2.5
- BetRivers 2.5
- Bally Bet 2.5
- Hard Rock Bet 2.5
- FanDuel 2.5
- Fliff 2.5
- BetMGM 2.5
- Fanatics 3.5 (easiest number)
Line movement
No book has moved its number since first posting it.
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 3.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-15 | @ DEN | 3 | under |
| 2026-10-11 | vs SF | 3 | under |
| 2026-10-04 | vs LAC | 1 | under |
| 2026-09-27 | @ WAS | 5 | over |
| 2026-09-20 | @ ARI | 1 | under |
| 2026-09-09 | vs NE | 2 | under |
| 2026-01-03 | @ SF | 2 | under |
| 2025-12-28 | @ CAR | 3 | under |
| 2025-12-18 | vs LA | 4 | over |
| 2025-12-14 | vs IND | 3 | under |
| 2025-12-07 | @ ATL | 3 | under |
| 2025-11-30 | vs MIN | 4 | over |
| 2025-11-23 | @ TEN | 2 | under |
| 2025-11-16 | @ LA | 10 | over |
| 2025-11-09 | vs ARI | 0 | under |
| 2025-11-02 | @ WAS | 3 | under |
| 2025-10-20 | vs HOU | 1 | under |
| 2025-10-12 | @ JAX | 3 | under |
| 2025-10-05 | vs TB | 7 | over |
| 2025-09-25 | @ ARI | 3 | under |
| 2025-09-21 | vs NO | 1 | under |
| 2025-09-14 | @ PIT | 2 | under |
| 2025-09-07 | vs SF | 1 | under |