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Baker Mayfield
TB @ CAR · Sun 1:00 PM ETPassing Yards · 216.5 at BetMGM · median 215.5 ·
56Signal · under 216.570% · 7 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
3 / 10Cleared the number in 3 of 10 games
How the formula reads this game
- pass attempts: 32.0 a game recently
Expected passing yards: 205.0 yds against 216.5 · over 44%, under 56%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 3 games, 3 this season.
Last 10 games against 216.5 · Nov 23, 2025 – Sep 27, 2026
Worst miss -129 on the under| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-23 | LA | 41 under | −175.5 |
| 2025-11-30 | ARI | 194 under | −22.5 |
| 2025-12-07 | NO | 122 under | −94.5 |
| 2025-12-11 | ATL | 277 over | +60.5 |
| 2025-12-21 | CAR | 145 under | −71.5 |
| 2025-12-28 | MIA | 346 over | +129.5 |
| 2026-01-03 | CAR | 203 under | −13.5 |
| 2026-09-13 | CIN | 216 under | −0.5 |
| 2026-09-20 | CLE | 182 under | −34.5 |
| 2026-09-27 | MIN | 217 over | +0.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 7 / 10 | 70% under | +22 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Away (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 70% survives the other windows → The four windows all agree with it within 20 points; DPB Pro shows each one.
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Book Range
11 books · 5 yds spreadEasiest number for the under: 219.5
- ESPN Bet 214.5
- DraftKings 214.5
- Fliff 214.5
- PrizePicks 214.5
- Fanatics 215.5
- FanDuel 215.5
- Hard Rock Bet 215.5
- BetMGM 216.5
- Bally Bet 219.5 (easiest number)
- betPARX 219.5 (easiest number)
- BetRivers 219.5 (easiest number)
Line movement
No book has moved its number since first posting it.
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 216.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-27 | vs MIN | 217 | over |
| 2026-09-20 | vs CLE | 182 | under |
| 2026-09-13 | @ CIN | 216 | under |
| 2026-01-03 | vs CAR | 203 | under |
| 2025-12-28 | @ MIA | 346 | over |
| 2025-12-21 | @ CAR | 145 | under |
| 2025-12-11 | vs ATL | 277 | over |
| 2025-12-07 | vs NO | 122 | under |
| 2025-11-30 | vs ARI | 194 | under |
| 2025-11-23 | @ LA | 41 | under |
| 2025-11-16 | @ BUF | 173 | under |
| 2025-11-09 | vs NE | 273 | over |
| 2025-10-26 | @ NO | 152 | under |
| 2025-10-20 | @ DET | 228 | over |
| 2025-10-12 | vs SF | 256 | over |
| 2025-10-05 | @ SEA | 379 | over |
| 2025-09-28 | vs PHI | 289 | over |
| 2025-09-21 | vs NYJ | 233 | over |
| 2025-09-15 | @ HOU | 215 | under |
| 2025-09-07 | @ ATL | 167 | under |