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Baker Mayfield
TB @ CAR · Sun 1:00 PM ETPassing Yards · 219.5 at BetRivers · median 215.5 ·
56Signal · under 219.580% · 8 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
2 / 10Cleared the number in 2 of 10 games
How the formula reads this game
- pass attempts: 32.0 a game recently
Expected passing yards: 205.0 yds against 219.5 · over 44%, under 56%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 3 games, 3 this season.
Last 10 games against 219.5 · Nov 23, 2025 – Sep 27, 2026
Worst miss -126 on the under| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-23 | LA | 41 under | −178.5 |
| 2025-11-30 | ARI | 194 under | −25.5 |
| 2025-12-07 | NO | 122 under | −97.5 |
| 2025-12-11 | ATL | 277 over | +57.5 |
| 2025-12-21 | CAR | 145 under | −74.5 |
| 2025-12-28 | MIA | 346 over | +126.5 |
| 2026-01-03 | CAR | 203 under | −16.5 |
| 2026-09-13 | CIN | 216 under | −3.5 |
| 2026-09-20 | CLE | 182 under | −37.5 |
| 2026-09-27 | MIN | 217 under | −2.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 8 / 10 | 80% under | +25 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Away (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 80% survives the other windows → One of the four windows disagrees by 20 points or more. Last 5, last 20, this season and the venue split come with DPB Pro.
Try every Pro feature free for 7 days, no card
Book Range
11 books · 5 yds spreadEasiest number for the under: 219.5
- ESPN Bet 214.5
- DraftKings 214.5
- Fliff 214.5
- PrizePicks 214.5
- Fanatics 215.5
- FanDuel 215.5
- Hard Rock Bet 215.5
- BetMGM 216.5
- Bally Bet 219.5 (easiest number)
- betPARX 219.5 (easiest number)
- BetRivers 219.5 (easiest number)
Line movement
No book has moved its number since first posting it.
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 219.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-27 | vs MIN | 217 | under |
| 2026-09-20 | vs CLE | 182 | under |
| 2026-09-13 | @ CIN | 216 | under |
| 2026-01-03 | vs CAR | 203 | under |
| 2025-12-28 | @ MIA | 346 | over |
| 2025-12-21 | @ CAR | 145 | under |
| 2025-12-11 | vs ATL | 277 | over |
| 2025-12-07 | vs NO | 122 | under |
| 2025-11-30 | vs ARI | 194 | under |
| 2025-11-23 | @ LA | 41 | under |
| 2025-11-16 | @ BUF | 173 | under |
| 2025-11-09 | vs NE | 273 | over |
| 2025-10-26 | @ NO | 152 | under |
| 2025-10-20 | @ DET | 228 | over |
| 2025-10-12 | vs SF | 256 | over |
| 2025-10-05 | @ SEA | 379 | over |
| 2025-09-28 | vs PHI | 289 | over |
| 2025-09-21 | vs NYJ | 233 | over |
| 2025-09-15 | @ HOU | 215 | under |
| 2025-09-07 | @ ATL | 167 | under |