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Bo Nix
DEN @ ARI · Sun 4:05 PM ETPassing Yards · 217.5 at BetMGM · median 219.5 ·
61Signal · under 217.570% · 7 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
3 / 10Cleared the number in 3 of 10 games
How the formula reads this game
- pass attempts: 31.5 a game recently
Expected passing yards: 174.8 yds against 217.5 · over 39%, under 61%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 6 games, 6 this season.
Last 10 games against 217.5 · Dec 14, 2025 – Oct 15, 2026
Worst miss -134 on the under| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-14 | GB | 302 over | +84.5 |
| 2025-12-21 | JAX | 352 over | +134.5 |
| 2025-12-25 | KC | 182 under | −35.5 |
| 2026-01-04 | LAC | 141 under | −76.5 |
| 2026-09-14 | KC | 131 under | −86.5 |
| 2026-09-20 | JAX | 288 over | +70.5 |
| 2026-09-27 | LA | 186 under | −31.5 |
| 2026-10-04 | SF | 214 under | −3.5 |
| 2026-10-11 | LAC | 123 under | −94.5 |
| 2026-10-15 | SEA | 107 under | −110.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 7 / 10 | 70% under | +15 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Away (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 70% survives the other windows → The four windows all agree with it within 20 points; DPB Pro shows each one.
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Book Range
13 books · 9 yds spreadEasiest number for the under: 224.5
- Fanatics 215.5
- BetMGM 217.5
- FanDuel 219.5
- ESPN Bet 219.5
- Bally Bet 219.5
- betPARX 219.5
- BetRivers 219.5
- DraftKings 220.5
- Hard Rock Bet 220.5
- Fliff 220.5
- DK Pick6 220.5
- PrizePicks 220.5
- Underdog 224.5 (easiest number)
Line movement
- BetMGMMoved from 223.5 to 217.5
- Bally BetMoved from 217.5 to 219.5
- betPARXMoved from 217.5 to 219.5
- BetRiversMoved from 217.5 to 219.5
- FanDuelMoved from 221.5 to 219.5
- DraftKingsMoved from 216.5 to 220.5
- DK Pick6Moved from 221.5 to 220.5
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 217.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-15 | vs SEA | 107 | under |
| 2026-10-11 | @ LAC | 123 | under |
| 2026-10-04 | @ SF | 214 | under |
| 2026-09-27 | vs LA | 186 | under |
| 2026-09-20 | vs JAX | 288 | over |
| 2026-09-14 | @ KC | 131 | under |
| 2026-01-04 | vs LAC | 141 | under |
| 2025-12-25 | @ KC | 182 | under |
| 2025-12-21 | vs JAX | 352 | over |
| 2025-12-14 | vs GB | 302 | over |
| 2025-12-07 | @ LV | 212 | under |
| 2025-11-30 | @ WAS | 321 | over |
| 2025-11-16 | vs KC | 295 | over |
| 2025-11-06 | vs LV | 150 | under |
| 2025-11-02 | @ HOU | 173 | under |
| 2025-10-26 | vs DAL | 247 | over |
| 2025-10-19 | vs NYG | 279 | over |
| 2025-10-12 | @ NYJ | 174 | under |
| 2025-10-05 | @ PHI | 242 | over |
| 2025-09-29 | vs CIN | 326 | over |
| 2025-09-21 | @ LAC | 153 | under |
| 2025-09-14 | @ IND | 206 | under |
| 2025-09-07 | vs TEN | 176 | under |