← NFL board
D'Andre Swift
CHI vs NE · Thu 8:15 PM ETReceiving Yards · 21.5 at Hard Rock Bet · median 20.5 ·
60%under6 / 10 · last 10
4 / 10Cleared the number in 4 of 10 games
How the formula reads this game
- targets: 3.5 a game recently
- vs NE · ×0.98 yds per target
Expected receiving yards: 22.8 yds against 21.5 · over 45%, under 55%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 6 games, 6 this season.
Last 10 games against 21.5 · Dec 14, 2025 – Oct 18, 2026
Worst miss -32 on the under| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-14 | CLE | -2 under | −23.5 |
| 2025-12-20 | GB | 12 under | −9.5 |
| 2025-12-28 | SF | 25 over | +3.5 |
| 2026-01-04 | DET | 8 under | −13.5 |
| 2026-09-13 | CAR | 10 under | −11.5 |
| 2026-09-20 | MIN | 54 over | +32.5 |
| 2026-09-28 | PHI | 4 under | −17.5 |
| 2026-10-04 | NYJ | 16 under | −5.5 |
| 2026-10-11 | GB | 30 over | +8.5 |
| 2026-10-18 | ATL | 26 over | +4.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 6 / 10 | 60% under | +3 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Home (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 60% survives the other windows → One of the four windows disagrees by 20 points or more. Last 5, last 20, this season and the venue split come with DPB Pro.
Try every Pro feature free for 7 days, no card
Book Range
12 books · 2 yds spreadEasiest number for the under: 21.5
- betPARX 19.5
- BetRivers 19.5
- Bally Bet 19.5
- ESPN Bet 19.5
- FanDuel 20.5
- Fanatics 20.5
- BetMGM 20.5
- PrizePicks 20.5
- DraftKings 21.5 (easiest number)
- Fliff 21.5 (easiest number)
- Hard Rock Bet 21.5 (easiest number)
- DK Pick6 21.5 (easiest number)
Line movement
- Bally BetMoved from 20.5 to 19.5
- betPARXMoved from 20.5 to 19.5
- BetRiversMoved from 20.5 to 19.5
- ESPN BetMoved from 18.5 to 19.5
- BetMGMMoved from 19.5 to 20.5
- FanDuelMoved from 17.5 to 20.5
- PrizePicksMoved from 17.5 to 20.5
- DraftKingsMoved from 17.5 to 21.5
- FliffMoved from 17.5 to 21.5
- Hard Rock BetMoved from 17.5 to 21.5
- DK Pick6Moved from 18.5 to 21.5
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 21.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-18 | @ ATL | 26 | over |
| 2026-10-11 | @ GB | 30 | over |
| 2026-10-04 | vs NYJ | 16 | under |
| 2026-09-28 | vs PHI | 4 | under |
| 2026-09-20 | vs MIN | 54 | over |
| 2026-09-13 | @ CAR | 10 | under |
| 2026-01-04 | vs DET | 8 | under |
| 2025-12-28 | @ SF | 25 | over |
| 2025-12-20 | vs GB | 12 | under |
| 2025-12-14 | vs CLE | -2 | under |
| 2025-12-07 | @ GB | 19 | under |
| 2025-11-28 | @ PHI | 13 | under |
| 2025-11-23 | vs PIT | 14 | under |
| 2025-11-16 | @ MIN | 0 | under |
| 2025-11-09 | vs NYG | 18 | under |
| 2025-10-26 | @ BAL | 26 | over |
| 2025-10-19 | vs NO | 14 | under |
| 2025-10-13 | @ WAS | 67 | over |
| 2025-09-28 | @ LV | 22 | over |
| 2025-09-21 | vs DAL | 45 | over |
| 2025-09-14 | @ DET | 6 | under |
| 2025-09-08 | vs MIN | 12 | under |