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Michael Wilson
ARI vs DEN · Sun 4:05 PM ETReceptions · 4.5 at ESPN Bet ·
50Signal · over 4.560% · 6 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
6 / 10Cleared the number in 6 of 10 games
How the formula reads this game
- targets: 9.7 a game recently
Expected receptions: 5.5 against 4.5 · over 50%, under 50%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 6 games, 6 this season.
Last 10 games against 4.5 · Dec 14, 2025 – Oct 18, 2026
Worst miss -2.5| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-14 | HOU | 5 over | +0.5 |
| 2025-12-21 | ATL | 2 under | −2.5 |
| 2025-12-28 | CIN | 5 over | +0.5 |
| 2026-01-04 | LA | 5 over | +0.5 |
| 2026-09-13 | LAC | 5 over | +0.5 |
| 2026-09-20 | SEA | 2 under | −2.5 |
| 2026-09-27 | SF | 11 over | +6.5 |
| 2026-10-04 | NYG | 7 over | +2.5 |
| 2026-10-11 | DET | 4 under | −0.5 |
| 2026-10-18 | LA | 4 under | −0.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the over |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 6 / 10 | 60% over | +0.5 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Home (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 60% survives the other windows → One of the four windows disagrees by 20 points or more. Last 5, last 20, this season and the venue split come with DPB Pro.
Try every Pro feature free for 7 days, no card
Book Range
8 books · 1 spreadEasiest number for the over: 3.5 · best price BB, PX2, BR -167
- Bally Bet 3.5 -167 (easiest number) (best price at this number)
- betPARX 3.5 -167 (easiest number) (best price at this number)
- BetRivers 3.5 -167 (easiest number) (best price at this number)
- FanDuel 4.5 +104
- Fliff 4.5 +100
- Hard Rock Bet 4.5 +100
- DraftKings 4.5 -105
- ESPN Bet 4.5 -105
Line movement
No book has moved its number since first posting it.
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 4.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-18 | @ LA | 4 | under |
| 2026-10-11 | vs DET | 4 | under |
| 2026-10-04 | @ NYG | 7 | over |
| 2026-09-27 | @ SF | 11 | over |
| 2026-09-20 | vs SEA | 2 | under |
| 2026-09-13 | @ LAC | 5 | over |
| 2026-01-04 | @ LA | 5 | over |
| 2025-12-28 | @ CIN | 5 | over |
| 2025-12-21 | vs ATL | 2 | under |
| 2025-12-14 | @ HOU | 5 | over |
| 2025-12-07 | vs LA | 11 | over |
| 2025-11-30 | @ TB | 3 | under |
| 2025-11-23 | vs JAX | 10 | over |
| 2025-11-16 | vs SF | 15 | over |
| 2025-11-09 | @ SEA | 4 | under |
| 2025-11-03 | @ DAL | 3 | under |
| 2025-10-19 | vs GB | 3 | under |
| 2025-10-12 | @ IND | 4 | under |
| 2025-10-05 | vs TEN | 2 | under |
| 2025-09-25 | vs SEA | 3 | under |
| 2025-09-21 | @ SF | 1 | under |
| 2025-09-14 | vs CAR | 1 | under |
| 2025-09-07 | @ NO | 1 | under |