← NFL board
Mike Washington Jr.
LV @ SF · Sun 4:05 PM ETCarries · 8.5 at ESPN Bet · median 9.5 ·
55Signal · under 8.563% · 5 / 8 · last 10 · the formula's chance
3 / 8Cleared the number in 3 of 8 games, 2 without a result
How the formula reads this game
- carries: 8.1 a game recently
Expected carries: 8.1 against 8.5 · over 45%, under 55%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 8 games, 8 this season.
Last 10 games against 8.5 · Sep 13, 2026 – Nov 1, 2026
Worst miss -16.5 on the under| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| — | — | no result | — |
| — | — | no result | — |
| 2026-09-13 | MIA | 7 under | −1.5 |
| 2026-09-20 | LAC | 3 under | −5.5 |
| 2026-09-27 | NO | 5 under | −3.5 |
| 2026-10-04 | KC | 9 over | +0.5 |
| 2026-10-11 | NE | 1 under | −7.5 |
| 2026-10-18 | BUF | 9 over | +0.5 |
| 2026-10-25 | LA | 6 under | −2.5 |
| 2026-11-01 | NYJ | 25 over | +16.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 5 / 8 | 63% under | +0.4 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Away (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 63% survives the other windows → One of the four windows disagrees by 20 points or more. Last 5, last 20, this season and the venue split come with DPB Pro.
Try every Pro feature free for 7 days, no card
Book Range
5 books · 2 spreadEasiest number for the under: 10.5
- ESPN Bet 8.5
- DraftKings 8.5
- Hard Rock Bet 9.5
- betPARX 10.5 (easiest number)
- Bally Bet 10.5 (easiest number)
Line movement
- DraftKingsMoved from 12.5 to 8.5
- Hard Rock BetMoved from 12.5 to 9.5
- Bally BetMoved from 11.5 to 10.5
- betPARXMoved from 11.5 to 10.5
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 8.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-01 | @ NYJ | 25 | over |
| 2026-10-25 | vs LA | 6 | under |
| 2026-10-18 | vs BUF | 9 | over |
| 2026-10-11 | @ NE | 1 | under |
| 2026-10-04 | vs KC | 9 | over |
| 2026-09-27 | @ NO | 5 | under |
| 2026-09-20 | @ LAC | 3 | under |
| 2026-09-13 | vs MIA | 7 | under |