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Rico Dowdle
PIT vs CLE · Sun 1:00 PM ETRush + Rec Yards · 47.5 · median of 8 books ·
47Signal · over 47.560% · 6 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
6 / 10Cleared the number in 6 of 10 games
How the formula reads this game
- carries: 7.8 a game recently
- targets: 4.3 a game recently
- vs CLE · ×1.03 yds per carry
Expected rush + rec yards: 50.9 yds against 47.5 · over 47%, under 53%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 4 games, 4 this season.
Last 10 games against 47.5 · Nov 24, 2025 – Oct 25, 2026
Worst miss -26| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-24 | SF | 74 over | +26.5 |
| 2025-11-30 | LA | 79 over | +31.5 |
| 2025-12-14 | NO | 54 over | +6.5 |
| 2025-12-21 | TB | 43 under | −4.5 |
| 2025-12-28 | SEA | 63 over | +15.5 |
| 2026-01-03 | TB | 30 under | −17.5 |
| 2026-09-13 | ATL | 21 under | −26.5 |
| 2026-09-20 | NE | 44 under | −3.5 |
| 2026-10-18 | TB | 49 over | +1.5 |
| 2026-10-25 | NO | 86 over | +38.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the over |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 6 / 10 | 60% over | +7 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Home (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 60% survives the other windows → The four windows all agree with it within 20 points; DPB Pro shows each one.
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Book Range
8 books · 5 yds spreadEasiest number for the over: 44.5 · best price BB, PX2 -114
- Bally Bet 44.5 -114 (easiest number) (best price at this number)
- betPARX 44.5 -114 (easiest number) (best price at this number)
- BetRivers 44.5 -115 (easiest number)
- Hard Rock Bet 47.5 -115
- DraftKings 47.5 -116
- PrizePicks 47.5
- FanDuel 48.5 -113
- Underdog 49.5
Line movement
- DraftKingsMoved from 44.5 to 47.5
- Hard Rock BetMoved from 45.5 to 47.5
- PrizePicksMoved from 43.5 to 47.5
- FanDuelMoved from 46.5 to 48.5
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 47.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-25 | @ NO | 86 | over |
| 2026-10-18 | @ TB | 49 | over |
| 2026-09-20 | @ NE | 44 | under |
| 2026-09-13 | vs ATL | 21 | under |
| 2026-01-03 | @ TB | 30 | under |
| 2025-12-28 | vs SEA | 63 | over |
| 2025-12-21 | vs TB | 43 | under |
| 2025-12-14 | @ NO | 54 | over |
| 2025-11-30 | vs LA | 79 | over |
| 2025-11-24 | @ SF | 74 | over |
| 2025-11-16 | @ ATL | 100 | over |
| 2025-11-09 | vs NO | 63 | over |
| 2025-11-02 | @ GB | 141 | over |
| 2025-10-26 | vs BUF | 54 | over |
| 2025-10-19 | @ NYJ | 96 | over |
| 2025-10-12 | vs DAL | 239 | over |
| 2025-10-05 | vs MIA | 234 | over |
| 2025-09-28 | @ NE | 30 | under |
| 2025-09-21 | vs ATL | 38 | under |
| 2025-09-14 | @ ARI | 19 | under |
| 2025-09-07 | @ JAX | 16 | under |