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Rico Dowdle
PIT vs CLE · Sun 1:00 PM ETRush + Rec Yards · 49.5 at Underdog · median 47.5 ·
54Signal · over 49.550% · 5 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
5 / 10Cleared the number in 5 of 10 games
How the formula reads this game
- carries: 7.8 a game recently
- targets: 4.3 a game recently
- vs CLE · ×1.03 yds per carry
Expected rush + rec yards: 50.9 yds against 49.5 · over 46%, under 54%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 4 games, 4 this season.
Last 10 games against 49.5 · Nov 24, 2025 – Oct 25, 2026
Worst miss -28| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-24 | SF | 74 over | +24.5 |
| 2025-11-30 | LA | 79 over | +29.5 |
| 2025-12-14 | NO | 54 over | +4.5 |
| 2025-12-21 | TB | 43 under | −6.5 |
| 2025-12-28 | SEA | 63 over | +13.5 |
| 2026-01-03 | TB | 30 under | −19.5 |
| 2026-09-13 | ATL | 21 under | −28.5 |
| 2026-09-20 | NE | 44 under | −5.5 |
| 2026-10-18 | TB | 49 under | −0.5 |
| 2026-10-25 | NO | 86 over | +36.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 5 / 10 | 50% | +5 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Home (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 50% survives the other windows → One of the four windows disagrees by 20 points or more. Last 5, last 20, this season and the venue split come with DPB Pro.
Try every Pro feature free for 7 days, no card
Book Range
8 books · 5 yds spread
- Bally Bet 44.5
- betPARX 44.5
- BetRivers 44.5
- Hard Rock Bet 47.5
- DraftKings 47.5
- PrizePicks 47.5
- FanDuel 48.5
- Underdog 49.5
Line movement
- DraftKingsMoved from 44.5 to 47.5
- Hard Rock BetMoved from 45.5 to 47.5
- PrizePicksMoved from 43.5 to 47.5
- FanDuelMoved from 46.5 to 48.5
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 49.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-25 | @ NO | 86 | over |
| 2026-10-18 | @ TB | 49 | under |
| 2026-09-20 | @ NE | 44 | under |
| 2026-09-13 | vs ATL | 21 | under |
| 2026-01-03 | @ TB | 30 | under |
| 2025-12-28 | vs SEA | 63 | over |
| 2025-12-21 | vs TB | 43 | under |
| 2025-12-14 | @ NO | 54 | over |
| 2025-11-30 | vs LA | 79 | over |
| 2025-11-24 | @ SF | 74 | over |
| 2025-11-16 | @ ATL | 100 | over |
| 2025-11-09 | vs NO | 63 | over |
| 2025-11-02 | @ GB | 141 | over |
| 2025-10-26 | vs BUF | 54 | over |
| 2025-10-19 | @ NYJ | 96 | over |
| 2025-10-12 | vs DAL | 239 | over |
| 2025-10-05 | vs MIA | 234 | over |
| 2025-09-28 | @ NE | 30 | under |
| 2025-09-21 | vs ATL | 38 | under |
| 2025-09-14 | @ ARI | 19 | under |
| 2025-09-07 | @ JAX | 16 | under |