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RJ Harvey
DEN @ ARI · Sun 4:05 PM ETReceptions · 3.5 at BetMGM ·
51Signal · over 3.560% · 6 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
6 / 10Cleared the number in 6 of 10 games
How the formula reads this game
- targets: 5.2 a game recently
Expected receptions: 4.6 against 3.5 · over 51%, under 49%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 5 games, 5 this season.
Last 10 games against 3.5 · Dec 7, 2025 – Oct 15, 2026
Worst miss -3.5| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-07 | LV | 6 over | +2.5 |
| 2025-12-14 | GB | 0 under | −3.5 |
| 2025-12-21 | JAX | 4 over | +0.5 |
| 2025-12-25 | KC | 5 over | +1.5 |
| 2026-01-04 | LAC | 1 under | −2.5 |
| 2026-09-14 | KC | 4 over | +0.5 |
| 2026-09-27 | LA | 6 over | +2.5 |
| 2026-10-04 | SF | 10 over | +6.5 |
| 2026-10-11 | LAC | 0 under | −3.5 |
| 2026-10-15 | SEA | 3 under | −0.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the over |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 6 / 10 | 60% over | +0.4 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Away (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 60% survives the other windows → The four windows all agree with it within 20 points; DPB Pro shows each one.
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Book Range
3.512 books, no line disagreementMGM · DK · ESPN · BB · PX2 · BR · HR · FD · FL · PK6 · PP · UD· best price at 3.5: MGM, DK, ESPN -110
Line movement
No book has moved its number since first posting it.
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 3.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-15 | vs SEA | 3 | under |
| 2026-10-11 | @ LAC | 0 | under |
| 2026-10-04 | @ SF | 10 | over |
| 2026-09-27 | vs LA | 6 | over |
| 2026-09-14 | @ KC | 4 | over |
| 2026-01-04 | vs LAC | 1 | under |
| 2025-12-25 | @ KC | 5 | over |
| 2025-12-21 | vs JAX | 4 | over |
| 2025-12-14 | vs GB | 0 | under |
| 2025-12-07 | @ LV | 6 | over |
| 2025-11-30 | @ WAS | 3 | under |
| 2025-11-16 | vs KC | 3 | under |
| 2025-11-06 | vs LV | 2 | under |
| 2025-11-02 | @ HOU | 5 | over |
| 2025-10-26 | vs DAL | 1 | under |
| 2025-10-19 | vs NYG | 1 | under |
| 2025-10-12 | @ NYJ | 4 | over |
| 2025-10-05 | @ PHI | 3 | under |
| 2025-09-29 | vs CIN | 4 | over |
| 2025-09-21 | @ LAC | 3 | under |
| 2025-09-14 | @ IND | 1 | under |
| 2025-09-07 | vs TEN | 1 | under |