← NFL board
Tyler Allgeier
ARI @ DAL · Sun 1:00 PM ETRushing Yards · 16.5 at DK Pick6 ·
51Signal · over 16.560% · 6 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
6 / 10Cleared the number in 6 of 10 games
How the formula reads this game
- carries: 8.7 a game recently
- vs DAL · ×1.02 yds per carry
Expected rushing yards: 25.7 yds against 16.5 · over 51%, under 49%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 7 games, 7 this season.
Last 10 games against 16.5 · Dec 21, 2025 – Oct 25, 2026
Worst miss -17| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-21 | ARI | 79 over | +62.5 |
| 2025-12-29 | LA | 23 over | +6.5 |
| 2026-01-04 | NO | 16 under | −0.5 |
| 2026-09-13 | LAC | 61 over | +44.5 |
| 2026-09-20 | SEA | 10 under | −6.5 |
| 2026-09-27 | SF | -1 under | −17.5 |
| 2026-10-04 | NYG | 42 over | +25.5 |
| 2026-10-11 | DET | 7 under | −9.5 |
| 2026-10-18 | LA | 38 over | +21.5 |
| 2026-10-25 | DEN | 19 over | +2.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the over |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 6 / 10 | 60% over | +13 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Away (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 60% survives the other windows → The four windows all agree with it within 20 points; DPB Pro shows each one.
Try every Pro feature free for 7 days, no card
Book Range
6 books · 1 yds spreadEasiest number for the over: 15.5
- BetMGM 15.5 -115 (easiest number)
- DraftKings 16.5 -112
- FanDuel 16.5 -114
- Hard Rock Bet 16.5 -115
- DK Pick6 16.5
- PrizePicks 16.5
Line movement
No book has moved its number since first posting it.
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 16.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-25 | vs DEN | 19 | over |
| 2026-10-18 | @ LA | 38 | over |
| 2026-10-11 | vs DET | 7 | under |
| 2026-10-04 | @ NYG | 42 | over |
| 2026-09-27 | @ SF | -1 | under |
| 2026-09-20 | vs SEA | 10 | under |
| 2026-09-13 | @ LAC | 61 | over |
| 2026-01-04 | vs NO | 16 | under |
| 2025-12-29 | vs LA | 23 | over |
| 2025-12-21 | @ ARI | 79 | over |
| 2025-12-11 | @ TB | 18 | over |
| 2025-12-07 | vs SEA | 34 | over |
| 2025-11-30 | @ NYJ | 20 | over |
| 2025-11-23 | @ NO | 44 | over |
| 2025-11-16 | vs CAR | 10 | under |
| 2025-11-09 | @ IND | 57 | over |
| 2025-11-02 | @ NE | 6 | under |
| 2025-10-26 | vs MIA | 4 | under |
| 2025-10-19 | @ SF | 16 | under |
| 2025-10-13 | vs BUF | 32 | over |
| 2025-09-28 | vs WAS | 51 | over |
| 2025-09-21 | @ CAR | 4 | under |
| 2025-09-14 | @ MIN | 76 | over |
| 2025-09-07 | vs TB | 24 | over |