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Aaron Rodgers
PIT @ NO · Sun 9:30 AM ETPass Attempts · 34.5 at DraftKings ·
51Signal · over 34.570% · 7 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
7 / 10Cleared the number in 7 of 10 games
How the formula reads this game
- pass attempts: 38.8 a game recently
Expected pass attempts: 38.8 against 34.5 · over 51%, under 49%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 6 games, 6 this season.
Last 10 games against 34.5 · Dec 15, 2025 – Oct 18, 2026
Worst miss -7.5| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-15 | MIA | 27 under | −7.5 |
| 2025-12-21 | DET | 41 over | +6.5 |
| 2025-12-28 | CLE | 39 over | +4.5 |
| 2026-01-04 | BAL | 47 over | +12.5 |
| 2026-09-13 | ATL | 40 over | +5.5 |
| 2026-09-20 | NE | 39 over | +4.5 |
| 2026-09-27 | CIN | 34 under | −0.5 |
| 2026-10-01 | CLE | 40 over | +5.5 |
| 2026-10-11 | IND | 31 under | −3.5 |
| 2026-10-18 | TB | 49 over | +14.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the over |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 7 / 10 | 70% over | +4.2 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Away (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 70% survives the other windows → One of the four windows disagrees by 20 points or more. Last 5, last 20, this season and the venue split come with DPB Pro.
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Book Range
7 books · 1 spreadEasiest number for the over: 33.5 · best price PX2 -117
- betPARX 33.5 -117 (easiest number) (best price at this number)
- Bally Bet 33.5 -122 (easiest number)
- Hard Rock Bet 34.5 -105
- DraftKings 34.5 -111
- Fliff 34.5 -115
- PrizePicks 34.5
- Underdog 34.5
Line movement
- DraftKingsMoved from 33.5 to 34.5
- FliffMoved from 32.5 to 34.5
- PrizePicksMoved from 33.5 to 34.5
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 34.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-18 | @ TB | 49 | over |
| 2026-10-11 | vs IND | 31 | under |
| 2026-10-01 | @ CLE | 40 | over |
| 2026-09-27 | vs CIN | 34 | under |
| 2026-09-20 | @ NE | 39 | over |
| 2026-09-13 | vs ATL | 40 | over |
| 2026-01-04 | vs BAL | 47 | over |
| 2025-12-28 | @ CLE | 39 | over |
| 2025-12-21 | @ DET | 41 | over |
| 2025-12-15 | vs MIA | 27 | under |
| 2025-12-07 | @ BAL | 34 | under |
| 2025-11-30 | vs BUF | 21 | under |
| 2025-11-16 | vs CIN | 15 | under |
| 2025-11-09 | @ LAC | 31 | under |
| 2025-11-02 | vs IND | 35 | over |
| 2025-10-26 | vs GB | 36 | over |
| 2025-10-16 | @ CIN | 34 | under |
| 2025-10-12 | vs CLE | 30 | under |
| 2025-09-28 | vs MIN | 22 | under |
| 2025-09-21 | @ NE | 23 | under |
| 2025-09-14 | vs SEA | 33 | under |
| 2025-09-07 | @ NYJ | 30 | under |