← NFL board4 straight over
Aaron Rodgers
PIT @ NO · Sun 9:30 AM ETPassing Yards · 233.5 at PrizePicks · median 235.5 ·
48Signal · over 233.560% · 6 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
6 / 10Cleared the number in 6 of 10 games
How the formula reads this game
- pass attempts: 38.8 a game recently
Expected passing yards: 247.8 yds against 233.5 · over 48%, under 52%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 6 games, 6 this season.
Last 10 games against 233.5 · Dec 15, 2025 – Oct 18, 2026
Worst miss -65| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-15 | MIA | 224 under | −9.5 |
| 2025-12-21 | DET | 266 over | +32.5 |
| 2025-12-28 | CLE | 168 under | −65.5 |
| 2026-01-04 | BAL | 294 over | +60.5 |
| 2026-09-13 | ATL | 221 under | −12.5 |
| 2026-09-20 | NE | 187 under | −46.5 |
| 2026-09-27 | CIN | 292 over | +58.5 |
| 2026-10-01 | CLE | 299 over | +65.5 |
| 2026-10-11 | IND | 235 over | +1.5 |
| 2026-10-18 | TB | 253 over | +19.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the over |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 6 / 10 | 60% over | +10 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Away (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 60% survives the other windows → One of the four windows disagrees by 20 points or more. Last 5, last 20, this season and the venue split come with DPB Pro.
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Book Range
11 books · 8 yds spreadEasiest number for the over: 230.5
- Fanatics 230.5 -110 (easiest number)
- FanDuel 233.5 -114
- PrizePicks 233.5
- Hard Rock Bet 234.5 -115
- Bally Bet 235.5 -113
- betPARX 235.5 -113
- BetRivers 235.5 -114
- ESPN Bet 235.5 -120
- Fliff 235.5 -120
- BetMGM 236.5 -115
- DraftKings 238.5 -111
Line movement
- FanDuelMoved from 230.5 to 233.5
- PrizePicksMoved from 231.5 to 233.5
- Hard Rock BetMoved from 231.5 to 234.5
- FliffMoved from 232.5 to 235.5
- BetMGMMoved from 233.5 to 236.5
- DraftKingsMoved from 234.5 to 238.5
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 233.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-18 | @ TB | 253 | over |
| 2026-10-11 | vs IND | 235 | over |
| 2026-10-01 | @ CLE | 299 | over |
| 2026-09-27 | vs CIN | 292 | over |
| 2026-09-20 | @ NE | 187 | under |
| 2026-09-13 | vs ATL | 221 | under |
| 2026-01-04 | vs BAL | 294 | over |
| 2025-12-28 | @ CLE | 168 | under |
| 2025-12-21 | @ DET | 266 | over |
| 2025-12-15 | vs MIA | 224 | under |
| 2025-12-07 | @ BAL | 284 | over |
| 2025-11-30 | vs BUF | 117 | under |
| 2025-11-16 | vs CIN | 116 | under |
| 2025-11-09 | @ LAC | 161 | under |
| 2025-11-02 | vs IND | 203 | under |
| 2025-10-26 | vs GB | 219 | under |
| 2025-10-16 | @ CIN | 249 | over |
| 2025-10-12 | vs CLE | 235 | over |
| 2025-09-28 | vs MIN | 200 | under |
| 2025-09-21 | @ NE | 139 | under |
| 2025-09-14 | vs SEA | 203 | under |
| 2025-09-07 | @ NYJ | 244 | over |