← NFL board5 straight over
Elijah Higgins
ARI vs DEN · Sun 4:05 PM ETReceiving Yards · 11.5 at BetMGM · median 12.5 ·
57Signal · over 11.570% · 7 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
7 / 10Cleared the number in 7 of 10 games
How the formula reads this game
- targets: 2.8 a game recently
- vs DEN · ×1.01 yds per target
Expected receiving yards: 31.5 yds against 11.5 · over 57%, under 43%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 4 games, 4 this season.
Last 10 games against 11.5 · Nov 30, 2025 – Oct 18, 2026
Worst miss -11| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-30 | TB | 17 over | +5.5 |
| 2025-12-07 | LA | 0 under | −11.5 |
| 2025-12-14 | HOU | 3 under | −8.5 |
| 2025-12-21 | ATL | 91 over | +79.5 |
| 2025-12-28 | CIN | 0 under | −11.5 |
| 2026-01-04 | LA | 28 over | +16.5 |
| 2026-09-27 | SF | 20 over | +8.5 |
| 2026-10-04 | NYG | 19 over | +7.5 |
| 2026-10-11 | DET | 57 over | +45.5 |
| 2026-10-18 | LA | 28 over | +16.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the over |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 7 / 10 | 70% over | +15 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Home (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 70% survives the other windows → One of the four windows disagrees by 20 points or more. Last 5, last 20, this season and the venue split come with DPB Pro.
Try every Pro feature free for 7 days, no card
Book Range
11 books · 2 yds spreadEasiest number for the over: 11.5 · best price BB, PX2, BR -118
- Bally Bet 11.5 -118 (easiest number) (best price at this number)
- betPARX 11.5 -118 (easiest number) (best price at this number)
- BetRivers 11.5 -118 (easiest number) (best price at this number)
- BetMGM 11.5 -120 (easiest number)
- FanDuel 12.5 -113
- DraftKings 12.5 -114
- Fliff 12.5 -120
- Hard Rock Bet 12.5 -120
- DK Pick6 12.5
- PrizePicks 12.5
- ESPN Bet 13.5 -105
Line movement
- Bally BetMoved from 12.5 to 11.5
- BetMGMMoved from 12.5 to 11.5
- betPARXMoved from 12.5 to 11.5
- BetRiversMoved from 12.5 to 11.5
- DraftKingsMoved from 17.5 to 12.5
- FanDuelMoved from 17.5 to 12.5
- FliffMoved from 17.5 to 12.5
- Hard Rock BetMoved from 17.5 to 12.5
- PrizePicksMoved from 17.5 to 12.5
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 11.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-18 | @ LA | 28 | over |
| 2026-10-11 | vs DET | 57 | over |
| 2026-10-04 | @ NYG | 19 | over |
| 2026-09-27 | @ SF | 20 | over |
| 2026-01-04 | @ LA | 28 | over |
| 2025-12-28 | @ CIN | 0 | under |
| 2025-12-21 | vs ATL | 91 | over |
| 2025-12-14 | @ HOU | 3 | under |
| 2025-12-07 | vs LA | 0 | under |
| 2025-11-30 | @ TB | 17 | over |
| 2025-11-16 | vs SF | 11 | under |
| 2025-11-09 | @ SEA | 19 | over |
| 2025-11-03 | @ DAL | 30 | over |
| 2025-10-19 | vs GB | 3 | under |
| 2025-10-12 | @ IND | 34 | over |
| 2025-10-05 | vs TEN | 10 | under |
| 2025-09-21 | @ SF | 7 | under |
| 2025-09-14 | vs CAR | 45 | over |
| 2025-09-07 | @ NO | 3 | under |