← NFL board5 straight over
Elijah Higgins
ARI vs DEN · Sun 4:05 PM ETReceiving Yards · 12.5 at Fliff ·
56Signal · over 12.570% · 7 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
7 / 10Cleared the number in 7 of 10 games
How the formula reads this game
- targets: 2.8 a game recently
- vs DEN · ×1.01 yds per target
Expected receiving yards: 31.5 yds against 12.5 · over 56%, under 44%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 4 games, 4 this season.
Last 10 games against 12.5 · Nov 30, 2025 – Oct 18, 2026
Worst miss -12| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-30 | TB | 17 over | +4.5 |
| 2025-12-07 | LA | 0 under | −12.5 |
| 2025-12-14 | HOU | 3 under | −9.5 |
| 2025-12-21 | ATL | 91 over | +78.5 |
| 2025-12-28 | CIN | 0 under | −12.5 |
| 2026-01-04 | LA | 28 over | +15.5 |
| 2026-09-27 | SF | 20 over | +7.5 |
| 2026-10-04 | NYG | 19 over | +6.5 |
| 2026-10-11 | DET | 57 over | +44.5 |
| 2026-10-18 | LA | 28 over | +15.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the over |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 7 / 10 | 70% over | +14 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Home (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 70% survives the other windows → One of the four windows disagrees by 20 points or more. Last 5, last 20, this season and the venue split come with DPB Pro.
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Book Range
11 books · 2 yds spreadEasiest number for the over: 11.5 · best price BB, PX2, BR -118
- Bally Bet 11.5 -118 (easiest number) (best price at this number)
- betPARX 11.5 -118 (easiest number) (best price at this number)
- BetRivers 11.5 -118 (easiest number) (best price at this number)
- BetMGM 11.5 -120 (easiest number)
- FanDuel 12.5 -113
- DraftKings 12.5 -114
- Fliff 12.5 -120
- Hard Rock Bet 12.5 -120
- DK Pick6 12.5
- PrizePicks 12.5
- ESPN Bet 13.5 -105
Line movement
- Bally BetMoved from 12.5 to 11.5
- BetMGMMoved from 12.5 to 11.5
- betPARXMoved from 12.5 to 11.5
- BetRiversMoved from 12.5 to 11.5
- DraftKingsMoved from 17.5 to 12.5
- FanDuelMoved from 17.5 to 12.5
- FliffMoved from 17.5 to 12.5
- Hard Rock BetMoved from 17.5 to 12.5
- PrizePicksMoved from 17.5 to 12.5
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 12.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-18 | @ LA | 28 | over |
| 2026-10-11 | vs DET | 57 | over |
| 2026-10-04 | @ NYG | 19 | over |
| 2026-09-27 | @ SF | 20 | over |
| 2026-01-04 | @ LA | 28 | over |
| 2025-12-28 | @ CIN | 0 | under |
| 2025-12-21 | vs ATL | 91 | over |
| 2025-12-14 | @ HOU | 3 | under |
| 2025-12-07 | vs LA | 0 | under |
| 2025-11-30 | @ TB | 17 | over |
| 2025-11-16 | vs SF | 11 | under |
| 2025-11-09 | @ SEA | 19 | over |
| 2025-11-03 | @ DAL | 30 | over |
| 2025-10-19 | vs GB | 3 | under |
| 2025-10-12 | @ IND | 34 | over |
| 2025-10-05 | vs TEN | 10 | under |
| 2025-09-21 | @ SF | 7 | under |
| 2025-09-14 | vs CAR | 45 | over |
| 2025-09-07 | @ NO | 3 | under |