← NFL board9 straight over
Rico Dowdle
PIT vs CLE · Sun 1:00 PM ETCarries · 6.5 at ESPN Bet · median 7.5 ·
49Signal · over 6.590% · 9 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
9 / 10Cleared the number in 9 of 10 games
How the formula reads this game
- carries: 7.8 a game recently
Expected carries: 7.8 against 6.5 · over 49%, under 51%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 4 games, 4 this season.
Last 10 games against 6.5 · Nov 24, 2025 – Oct 25, 2026
Worst miss -0.5| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-24 | SF | 6 under | −0.5 |
| 2025-11-30 | LA | 18 over | +11.5 |
| 2025-12-14 | NO | 16 over | +9.5 |
| 2025-12-21 | TB | 9 over | +2.5 |
| 2025-12-28 | SEA | 12 over | +5.5 |
| 2026-01-03 | TB | 7 over | +0.5 |
| 2026-09-13 | ATL | 8 over | +1.5 |
| 2026-09-20 | NE | 7 over | +0.5 |
| 2026-10-18 | TB | 7 over | +0.5 |
| 2026-10-25 | NO | 9 over | +2.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the over |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 9 / 10 | 90% over | +3.4 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Home (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 90% survives the other windows → The four windows all agree with it within 20 points; DPB Pro shows each one.
Try every Pro feature free for 7 days, no card
Book Range
7 books · 1 spreadEasiest number for the over: 6.5
- ESPN Bet 6.5 -155 (easiest number)
- PrizePicks 7
- betPARX 7.5 +100
- DraftKings 7.5 +100
- Hard Rock Bet 7.5 +100
- Bally Bet 7.5 -105
- DK Pick6 7.5
Line movement
- PrizePicksMoved from 7.5 to 7
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 6.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-25 | @ NO | 9 | over |
| 2026-10-18 | @ TB | 7 | over |
| 2026-09-20 | @ NE | 7 | over |
| 2026-09-13 | vs ATL | 8 | over |
| 2026-01-03 | @ TB | 7 | over |
| 2025-12-28 | vs SEA | 12 | over |
| 2025-12-21 | vs TB | 9 | over |
| 2025-12-14 | @ NO | 16 | over |
| 2025-11-30 | vs LA | 18 | over |
| 2025-11-24 | @ SF | 6 | under |
| 2025-11-16 | @ ATL | 19 | over |
| 2025-11-09 | vs NO | 18 | over |
| 2025-11-02 | @ GB | 25 | over |
| 2025-10-26 | vs BUF | 8 | over |
| 2025-10-19 | @ NYJ | 17 | over |
| 2025-10-12 | vs DAL | 30 | over |
| 2025-10-05 | vs MIA | 23 | over |
| 2025-09-28 | @ NE | 9 | over |
| 2025-09-21 | vs ATL | 10 | over |
| 2025-09-14 | @ ARI | 6 | under |
| 2025-09-07 | @ JAX | 3 | under |