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Rico Dowdle
PIT vs CLE · Sun 1:00 PM ETReceiving Yards · 12.5 at BetRivers · median 13.5 ·
49Signal · over 12.560% · 6 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
6 / 10Cleared the number in 6 of 10 games
How the formula reads this game
- targets: 4.3 a game recently
Expected receiving yards: 20.5 yds against 12.5 · over 49%, under 51%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 4 games, 4 this season.
Last 10 games against 12.5 · Nov 24, 2025 – Oct 25, 2026
Worst miss -8| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-24 | SF | 36 over | +23.5 |
| 2025-11-30 | LA | 21 over | +8.5 |
| 2025-12-14 | NO | 5 under | −7.5 |
| 2025-12-21 | TB | 14 over | +1.5 |
| 2025-12-28 | SEA | 4 under | −8.5 |
| 2026-01-03 | TB | 20 over | +7.5 |
| 2026-09-13 | ATL | 6 under | −6.5 |
| 2026-09-20 | NE | 22 over | +9.5 |
| 2026-10-18 | TB | 9 under | −3.5 |
| 2026-10-25 | NO | 45 over | +32.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the over |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 6 / 10 | 60% over | +6 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Home (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 60% survives the other windows → The four windows all agree with it within 20 points; DPB Pro shows each one.
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Book Range
9 books · 2 yds spreadEasiest number for the over: 12.5 · best price MGM -115
- BetMGM 12.5 -115 (easiest number) (best price at this number)
- betPARX 12.5 -120 (easiest number)
- BetRivers 12.5 -121 (easiest number)
- Bally Bet 12.5 -125 (easiest number)
- FanDuel 13.5 -114
- Hard Rock Bet 13.5 -115
- DraftKings 13.5 -116
- DK Pick6 13.5
- PrizePicks 14.5
Line movement
- BetMGMMoved from 13.5 to 12.5
- FanDuelMoved from 14.5 to 13.5
- Hard Rock BetMoved from 14.5 to 13.5
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 12.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-25 | @ NO | 45 | over |
| 2026-10-18 | @ TB | 9 | under |
| 2026-09-20 | @ NE | 22 | over |
| 2026-09-13 | vs ATL | 6 | under |
| 2026-01-03 | @ TB | 20 | over |
| 2025-12-28 | vs SEA | 4 | under |
| 2025-12-21 | vs TB | 14 | over |
| 2025-12-14 | @ NO | 5 | under |
| 2025-11-30 | vs LA | 21 | over |
| 2025-11-24 | @ SF | 36 | over |
| 2025-11-16 | @ ATL | 55 | over |
| 2025-11-09 | vs NO | 10 | under |
| 2025-11-02 | @ GB | 11 | under |
| 2025-10-26 | vs BUF | 0 | under |
| 2025-10-19 | @ NYJ | 17 | over |
| 2025-10-12 | vs DAL | 56 | over |
| 2025-10-05 | vs MIA | 28 | over |
| 2025-09-28 | @ NE | -2 | under |
| 2025-09-21 | vs ATL | 8 | under |
| 2025-09-14 | @ ARI | 10 | under |
| 2025-09-07 | @ JAX | 4 | under |