Sione Vaki

DET @ MIA · Sun 1:00 PM ET

Rush + Rec Yards · 21.5 ·

52Signal · under 21.575% · 6 / 8 · last 10 · the formula's chance

2 / 8

Underdog 21.5 ·

How the formula reads this game

carries: 3.9 a game recently
targets: 0.9 a game recently
vs MIA · ×1.01 yds per carry

Expected rush + rec yards: 25.5 yds against 21.5 · over 48%, under 52%

Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 7 games, 7 this season.

Last 10 games against 21.5 · Nov 9, 2025 – Nov 1, 2026

Worst miss -48 on the under

Each game against 21.5
Date	Opponent	Result	Margin
—	—	no result	—
—	—	no result	—
2025-11-09	WAS	4 under	−17.5
2026-09-13	NO	18 under	−3.5
2026-09-17	BUF	20 under	−1.5
2026-09-27	NYJ	37 over	+15.5
2026-10-04	CAR	17 under	−4.5
2026-10-11	ARI	11 under	−10.5
2026-10-25	GB	5 under	−16.5
2026-11-01	MIN	70 over	+48.5

Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made

Splits

Window	Hits	Rate	Avg margin for the under
Last 5 (with DPB Pro)	Pro
Last 10	6 / 8	75% under	-1
Last 20 (with DPB Pro)	Pro
This season (2026) (with DPB Pro)	Pro
Away (with DPB Pro)	Pro

See whether the 75% survives the other windows → One of the four windows disagrees by 20 points or more. Last 5, last 20, this season and the venue split come with DPB Pro.
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Book Range

21.5Underdog· one book

Line movement

No book has moved its number since first posting it.

Game log

Date	Opponent	Result	vs 21.5
2026-11-01	vs MIN	70	over
2026-10-25	vs GB	5	under
2026-10-11	@ ARI	11	under
2026-10-04	@ CAR	17	under
2026-09-27	vs NYJ	37	over
2026-09-17	@ BUF	20	under
2026-09-13	vs NO	18	under
2025-11-09	@ WAS	4	under