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Rico Dowdle
PIT vs CLE · Sun 1:00 PM ETRushing Yards · 29.5 at ESPN Bet · median 27.5 ·
46Signal · over 29.560% · 6 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
6 / 10Cleared the number in 6 of 10 games
How the formula reads this game
- carries: 7.8 a game recently
- vs CLE · ×1.03 yds per carry
Expected rushing yards: 30.4 yds against 29.5 · over 46%, under 54%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 4 games, 4 this season.
Last 10 games against 29.5 · Nov 24, 2025 – Oct 25, 2026
Worst miss -19| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-24 | SF | 38 over | +8.5 |
| 2025-11-30 | LA | 58 over | +28.5 |
| 2025-12-14 | NO | 49 over | +19.5 |
| 2025-12-21 | TB | 29 under | −0.5 |
| 2025-12-28 | SEA | 59 over | +29.5 |
| 2026-01-03 | TB | 10 under | −19.5 |
| 2026-09-13 | ATL | 15 under | −14.5 |
| 2026-09-20 | NE | 22 under | −7.5 |
| 2026-10-18 | TB | 40 over | +10.5 |
| 2026-10-25 | NO | 41 over | +11.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the over |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 6 / 10 | 60% over | +7 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Home (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 60% survives the other windows → The four windows all agree with it within 20 points; DPB Pro shows each one.
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Book Range
11 books · 3 yds spreadEasiest number for the over: 26.5
- BetMGM 26.5 -115 (easiest number)
- betPARX 27.5 -112
- DraftKings 27.5 -112
- BetRivers 27.5 -113
- FanDuel 27.5 -114
- Bally Bet 27.5 -117
- Hard Rock Bet 27.5 -120
- Fliff 27.5 -125
- DK Pick6 27.5
- PrizePicks 27.5
- ESPN Bet 29.5 +110
Line movement
- DraftKingsMoved from 25.5 to 27.5
- FanDuelMoved from 24.5 to 27.5
- FliffMoved from 24.5 to 27.5
- Hard Rock BetMoved from 24.5 to 27.5
- PrizePicksMoved from 25.5 to 27.5
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 29.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-25 | @ NO | 41 | over |
| 2026-10-18 | @ TB | 40 | over |
| 2026-09-20 | @ NE | 22 | under |
| 2026-09-13 | vs ATL | 15 | under |
| 2026-01-03 | @ TB | 10 | under |
| 2025-12-28 | vs SEA | 59 | over |
| 2025-12-21 | vs TB | 29 | under |
| 2025-12-14 | @ NO | 49 | over |
| 2025-11-30 | vs LA | 58 | over |
| 2025-11-24 | @ SF | 38 | over |
| 2025-11-16 | @ ATL | 45 | over |
| 2025-11-09 | vs NO | 53 | over |
| 2025-11-02 | @ GB | 130 | over |
| 2025-10-26 | vs BUF | 54 | over |
| 2025-10-19 | @ NYJ | 79 | over |
| 2025-10-12 | vs DAL | 183 | over |
| 2025-10-05 | vs MIA | 206 | over |
| 2025-09-28 | @ NE | 32 | over |
| 2025-09-21 | vs ATL | 30 | over |
| 2025-09-14 | @ ARI | 9 | under |
| 2025-09-07 | @ JAX | 12 | under |