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Sione Vaki
DET @ MIA · Sun 1:00 PM ETRushing Yards · 18.5 at BetMGM · median 20.5 ·
55Signal · under 18.575% · 6 / 8 · last 10 · the formula's chance
2 / 8Cleared the number in 2 of 8 games, 2 without a result
How the formula reads this game
- carries: 3.9 a game recently
- vs MIA · ×1.01 yds per carry
Expected rushing yards: 17.4 yds against 18.5 · over 45%, under 55%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 7 games, 7 this season.
Last 10 games against 18.5 · Nov 9, 2025 – Nov 1, 2026
Worst miss -46 on the under| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| — | — | no result | — |
| — | — | no result | — |
| 2025-11-09 | WAS | 4 under | −14.5 |
| 2026-09-13 | NO | 7 under | −11.5 |
| 2026-09-17 | BUF | 7 under | −11.5 |
| 2026-09-27 | NYJ | 26 over | +7.5 |
| 2026-10-04 | CAR | 0 under | −18.5 |
| 2026-10-11 | ARI | 11 under | −7.5 |
| 2026-10-25 | GB | 5 under | −13.5 |
| 2026-11-01 | MIN | 65 over | +46.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 6 / 8 | 75% under | +3 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Away (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 75% survives the other windows → One of the four windows disagrees by 20 points or more. Last 5, last 20, this season and the venue split come with DPB Pro.
Try every Pro feature free for 7 days, no card
Book Range
11 books · 3 yds spreadEasiest number for the under: 21.5
- BetMGM 18.5
- FanDuel 19.5
- ESPN Bet 19.5
- betPARX 20.5
- BetRivers 20.5
- Hard Rock Bet 20.5
- Bally Bet 20.5
- Fliff 20.5
- PrizePicks 20.5
- DraftKings 21.5 (easiest number)
- DK Pick6 21.5 (easiest number)
Line movement
- ESPN BetMoved from 20.5 to 19.5
- FanDuelMoved from 15.5 to 19.5
- Bally BetMoved from 19.5 to 20.5
- betPARXMoved from 19.5 to 20.5
- BetRiversMoved from 19.5 to 20.5
- FliffMoved from 19.5 to 20.5
- Hard Rock BetMoved from 15.5 to 20.5
- PrizePicksMoved from 15.5 to 20.5
- DraftKingsMoved from 20.5 to 21.5
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 18.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-01 | vs MIN | 65 | over |
| 2026-10-25 | vs GB | 5 | under |
| 2026-10-11 | @ ARI | 11 | under |
| 2026-10-04 | @ CAR | 0 | under |
| 2026-09-27 | vs NYJ | 26 | over |
| 2026-09-17 | @ BUF | 7 | under |
| 2026-09-13 | vs NO | 7 | under |
| 2025-11-09 | @ WAS | 4 | under |